Bowling Philosophy-September 2010

by Thomas Scherrer

"It's a Numbers Game"

Before I begin, I have to say that it took me quite awhile to log on to my blog for some security/account reasons but after some quick long term memory recovery, we are back on track, continuing to spread the word of bowling. Apparently, the word is being spread now...globally. My blog site has updated a "stats" link and I am amazed that in the recent summer month of August, 80 hits were generated on my page, including 10 countries such as China, Russia, Canada, Albania, Latvia, and Vietnam...wow! I am big in the Eastern Bloc, thank you...thank you! Because of all that blog love or perhaps a case where some 16 year-old living in Riga was looking up the White Wagtail's mating habits and accidentally found my site, well...sometimes luck is where opportunity meets preparation. And...it fuels me to continue, so in the words of Karlis Ulmanis: let's talk par boulingu!

Speaking of stats, let's talk about them. Let's observe them. Let's discuss them. Let's destroy them.

Go back in time with me to 2006. I am out of William Paterson, back home, bowling in Long Island in my first full fledged adult league. Monday nights at AMF Sheridan Lanes, the Charlie Cap Classic. I was teaming up with local bowling stud Norm Ginsberg along with buddies of mine from high school and college bowling past, Mike Boble and Billy Shannon. As we are waiting to have our league meeting, which as you all know who bowl in high level leagues, have a bunch of good ole BS-ing about handicaps, prize funds, league secretaries, and so on, I overhear an idle conversation between two bowlers talking about their season's goals. One of these two players, a fairly decent player but no one you'd write an article about (OK, someone would-you're reading it) said that he would "want to average 230 or so".

It was almost at that moment that I was taken aback. Not by the number this player suggested he could average but that it was the first thing that came to his mind about a season. Answers more acceptable would have been "trying to add a straight game" or "work hard on spare shooting" or the more obvious answer to team bowling: "win the league championship".

First of all, what does a high average mean, anymore? This is not 1985 where average was a true barometer of a player's skill. We bowl in a much different world now than 25 years ago: we have super-advanced equipment, super-walled lane conditions, and super-sophisticated pro shop drillers that can punch a ball to make a player a little bit better. There is nothing wrong with this at all-in fact, it is the way the evolution of bowling should be. Players a quarter century later should be better than those that preceded them. But using average as a barometer to see who is better is borderline useless bordering on completely useless.

Secondly, how inherently selfish are we as bowlers to think that our statistics matter more so over how a team performs? Did we lose this somewhere along the way with the rise of the PBA and the decline of elite team bowling? One player alone doesn't win a league, but all 3, 4, or 5 players do. You win championships with unselfish, team-first players like Marc D'Errico and Clay Herrbach and Adrienne Miller on your teams (solid players, not their team's best player but capable of carrying them for stretches). You lose championships and teams with me-first, politically charged divas, and egotistical freaks who care only about their averages and their coveted "anchor" position (insert any player in the past two decades where their best player received lots of attention and hype, yet produced nothing amounting to a title).

I do not begrudge averages at all but seriously people? Averages are pretty much insignificant in today's game. Let's observer carefully why this is fact. First off, anyone who is reasonably good averages 200 if they give a crap. You have all the built-in advantages of technology at your disposal, with the ultimate cog being that house shots are literal magnets towards striking. Secondly, the mere fact that guys don't give a crap about averaging 200, yet still win leagues because they can be "lousy" for 4 months, then all of a sudden, get hot the last 8 weeks when it is money time, and their averages do not take a significant spike up (translation: sandbaggers) due to all the games bowled. Finally, there are so few classic leagues anymore. What I mean by "classic" is the taboo word in league bowling today: scratch. No one's average is worth a damn bit of good on leagues where handicap is 80% difference of 220, 230, 240, or in some leagues 250! It means little because the lower average players have a built-in advantage against the higher average, elite players by having at times, a 50 pin head start before a ball is thrown for score. Again, averages given this matrix are pretty much, irrelevant.

But they are moderately useful if you do have scratch bowling leagues, where numbers mean the simplest equation: win or lose. You still have to overcome the white elephant of a house shot on some leagues but there is some equity in averages in league where the handicap is zero for everyone. The other solution is to make tougher, flatter lane conditions, such as Sport Shot leagues or PBA Experience leagues. It actually makes averages very important and also very unimportant. Think critically for a moment: your average on Sport Condition bowling is going to take a dip, usually a big one. Suddenly, your average isn't as important as just trying to outbowl the other players. However, the other things that make a bowler good or are supposed to matter...matter once again. On the plus side of things, those with higher averages are clearly better players and we know this for a fact: no blocked conditions, no handicap interfering. We have rediscovered our identity. If you have both challenging lanes and no handicap, you have yourself the best of both worlds.

You also have the chance to change how we look at the game.

For so long, we have only used a person's average as a sign as to how good they are but we have the ability to look so much further into a player's game to find out how good they are. For example, we'll take the PBA Xperience Classic at AMF Auburn I bowled in the 2009-10 season for some documentation. The league average for the 12 bowlers bowling was a respectable 186.70. Twenty-eight weeks, the 5 animal patters, and two weeks each of the World Championship, Masters, US Open, and 50 foot TOC and we had some pretty solid numbers. First of all, 12 players is a small sample and understandably so, but I have little else to go off of at this point. The high average belonged to Chris Monroy at a fine 210.90. In fact, if you take the recent summer Xperience Classic, only two players averaged over 200 for both sessions and the other person is currently busy writing a blog, or something like that.

This is where we start peeling off the layers on how we can judge a bowler. A simple statistic to look at is how well did Monroy bowl in relation to the field (the other bowlers in the league) and we'll call it Average Differential. Before I continue, this stat has been around for years and is actually used as a stat in college bowling thanks to Karl Nickolai. Subtract Monroy's average from the league average and you get his difference, which would be +24.20. An exceptional average differential given the nature of the conditions, plus the small amount of bowlers in the league. To put it in comparison, my average was +15.00 (201.70-186.70). Pretty solid, but nowhere near Monroy's excellent effort. However, that only gives us a slice of the pie as to what happened during the season. Statistically, did Monroy have a better strike percentage than me? Yes. Did I have a better spare percentage than Monroy? I think. I think? Hell, how am I supposed to know? This is how I don't know for sure: because we only take note of the recap sheet and not the scoresheet. We only see the bottom line of things, sort of like seeing Bob Ross' finished paintings on PBS first, then telling us only a recap of how he painted it. Doesn't that sound boring???

Ooookkaaay....here is our finished picture of a beautiful landscape, with snowy white caps, and crystal clear water and clouds, happy clouds, happy white clouds. I didn't feel like painting it for 30 minutes in front of you, I have a hair appointment for my afro-perm, but enjoy the painting without any detail as to how I got there, in fact, you don't even know I actually made this. But stayed tuned for Sesame Street next on PBS!

Tell me that you would have turned off the station at that point? Please, I know we all have a soft spot for PBS and all of its great programming, but come on. Part of the beauty Ross and his paintings is how we got to the bottom line. Without it, we felt hollow inside. Empty. Cheated. Well, as bowlers we should feel the same way when it comes to our recap sheet. Does the scoresheet tell a different story? The right story? A story about someone else we bowled with? Not to get all baseball-speak on you but there is more to a player than just his average (or batting average, if you will...), than as to how he gets there. Consider this the first step into post-modern bowling.

Suppose we used the scoresheet as our guide to coming up with new statistics that further helps us establish who the best of the best are. Ignore using only your average as a crutch and let's hypothesize some possible "new" statistics to bowling:

Average Differential: we already mentioned it but we should also make it clear that both Monroy and I did not bowl every single game of the year so our average differential is slightly skewed. It should be differential for average during every week you bowled, not just overall. To say that this is my backbone behind this is being rather obvious.

Pair Average Differential: average of a bowler subtracted by the average on the pair they are bowling on. Can explain a tough pair or even a possible bad team matchup against your opponents (something highly overlooked).

Pattern Average: on sport shot leagues, in particular, this comes heavily into play as to which patterns are playing easier or harder.

Pair Average: general average of the pair, regardless of who is bowling on it. Unique approach to tournament play or leagues where bowlers switch pairs after every game or pair of games. Can also determine how well a pair is playing to elect being more aggressive or more conservative.

Those are numbers you can look at the recap sheet and get an idea, but also having a scoresheet to find out who is bowling where does help. Now, let's use the scoresheet to further evaluate a player:

PRO (Spare + Strike %): for example, if a player's strike % is 64 percent and his spare % is 90 percent, that adds up to a 154 PRO. PRO's above 140 should be considered pretty good (again, this is only an hypothesis).

NOB (nine or better): 9 or better for every shot you throw. Example, 8 nine counts in 11 shots (remember, you can throw up to 12 shots in each game, not 10) makes is a 72% NOB.

SINPIN (Single Pin Spare %): I don't know why no players keep track of these things. I did my senior year in college and was a 97% SINPIN. I was also looked at funny by my teammates for keeping track of it. Anyway, 95% or better good. You should, repeat: should make all single pin spares but it isn't as easy as that. We are, after all, humans. It is a great stat to keep if your team is need of a solid spare shooter. You want one if the conditions are not striking.

APD (Avg. + Avg. Diff.): consider it the equivalent of baseball's OPS-on base plus slugging percentage. A person's average plus their average differential. The perfect combination of a player's ability to score well but also grind when the field average is lower. Similar to that of a hitter being able to grind out a walk and also ring a double to the gap.

Again, these are merely hypothesis and not facts. Some might work, some might outright make no sense. But we do need a test to prove that it can work. Luckily, I bowl in the perfect league to try it in: the 2010-11 PBA Xperience Classic. I also have a built-in advantage of using the scoresheets from each game by simply printing them out at the desk after every week. Call it using your powers or persuasion. In any event, it is time we start looking at how bowling should be perceived: similar to other sports, it is more than just numbers but how numbers are used to make players more relevant than others. If you thought I was stopping at just the sport of bowling, just wait...the czar of bowling is coming soon and he has got some changes in store for the bowling industry. Oh, people in Latvia...don't take that literally. Just a fake czar.



Tiem, kas ir milestiba un boulinga zinasanas...tas Boulings Filozofija. Namaste.