"Broken Wings" by Thomas Scherrer Perhaps Adam Wainwright holds more
to the future of Cardinals than
anyone...
For several weeks, I have tried to show a degree of patience and calmness surrounding the Albert Pujols contract negotiations with the St. Louis Cardinals; seeing both sides argument very clearly and vividly as to what the Red Birds' first base slugger value is to not just the team but to a city. When no contract extension was agreed to last week, I safely assumed that this would be the biggest running story all season long. In a recent era where star players are leaving the middle and small market sports franchises and elect to "take their talents" to bigger markets, the sporting world desperately opines for a true small-town hero. That hero to most fans now is Albert Pujols. He made a smart decision by looking for an early extension and if he didn't not get what he wanted, he burned off contract talks until the end of the 2011 baseball season. However, with all that being said, nothing much else was left to say or to be creative on the subject. Yet, I waited.
Waited some more....
Still waited...
A little bit longer...
Then on Wednesday, it fell into my lap, or laptop. What it was, quite literally was Adam Wainwright's elbow ligaments.
One catastrophic injury changes everything in baseball, doesn't it? Wainwright, 29, coming off consecutive stellar seasons after closing for the '06 Cardinals in their championship season, will now be spending his season in a prestigious, if not dubious university: Tommy John U. Safe to say, you don't ever want to be there...especially now that your best offensive player (and possibly best in baseball) is ready to test the waters of free agency in the winter.
Let the true madness begin. Wainwright's injury is, first and foremost, a damning injury to a solid Cardinal rotation, featuring co-Ace Chris Carpenter as well as the Dave Duncan Rejuvenation Rotation. Sabermaticians will further compound Wainwright's loss by extolling his win percentage, Wins Above Replacement, actual win total, and so on...but ignore that for a moment. Right now, nobody really cares about that if you bleed Cardinal Red. Wainwright's loss without question changes the course of the St. Louis Cardinals franchise, perhaps forever.
Without Wainwright, the Cardinals now have to seriously re-consider their 2011 season. If anything, the Cardinals know that Pujols will be looking to sign the most lucrative contract in the game's great history and if the Cards cannot match up to what Pujols is asking for, he could possibly leave for free agency and leave the Cardinals with a 37 year old Carpenter, a fully rehabbed, but uncertain future in Wainwright, young but unproven players in Colby Rasmus and John Jay, and an always uneasy late-inning bullpen. This begs a few questions to ponder:
Question 1: If the Cards see themselves as "all in" for 2011, how do they reload their team?
Too early to tell in Spring Training of course, but there have already been whispers about the services of Kevin Millwood and, yes, that Pedro Martinez to replace Wainwright. Obviously, replacing Wainwright at this stage of his career is impossible in February, so the Cards will look to tread water, hope that Pujols, Matt Holliday and Yadi Molina carry the load offensively, and that Rasmus and Jay can show more signs of consistency, plus see if Lance Berkman has something left in the tank. Those probable "ifs" lead to...
Question 2: If the Cards are in the postseason hunt, do they go for it all in a sign of telling Pujols, "we're in it to win this"?
The Cardinals track record in the last few years has dictated that they will, in fact, be in the hunt to try and make a championship run. Manger Tony LaRussa and Duncan have been a stable, consistent duo running the ballclub on the field, GM John Mozeliak has not been afraid to look for solid deals in July, plus there is the allure of playing in a baseball-friendly city such as St. Louis, where only one beat writer follows you around. Crowds are usually supportive and professional, smart and understanding of the game and will be in full support of its players. It is like playing in a baseball bubble as opposed to the vacuums of Boston, Philly, and New York. It makes sense that the allure, more than anything, will help the Cardinals snare a potential player come the deadline.
However, what happens if Question 1 does not work out? What if Carpenter, who has had his share of injuries in the past few seasons, goes out for a stretch? What if Berkman and Molina show their age and decline offensively and defensively? What if Kyle McClelland and Ryan Franklin fail to hold leads late in games? What if, they are just not equipped to contend? This leads to...
Question 3: If the Cardinals are out of the race, do they do the unspeakable and trade Pujols, mid-season???
You almost have to, don't you? Don't you? I'll toss a Hubie Brown-ism at you: Ok, say you're the Cardinals; we have lost Wainwright all season, Carpenter is not the same pitcher he once was, and our vets are struggling. Now, we have Pujols asking for $30 million a year but we cannot afford that and we are down this season. Pujols will not likely want to play for a .500 team...can we trade him for max value?
Ok, now back to being Thomas: I say you gotta do it. You hate to do it, but you have to do it. There is no way you cannot do something, knowing that Pujols can leave you and for nothing in return. You can compare it, almost hauntingly with the Cleveland Cavs and LeBron James. The city of Cleveland and LeBron were tied together, almost kinetically and spiritually. They put their faith in one man, an Akron native; blessed with skills beyond our wildest imagination. They loved him, adored him, worshiped every step, every dunk, every powder toss...then, in a blink of an eye, he "took his talents" to South Beach, left Cleveland fleeing, without even giving thanks to a city and a state that made him feel like a god.
If you are St. Louis, you and El Hombre are tied together by some metaphysical power. You have shared a decade of joy and for the most part, success. A 2006 World Series championship is in your collective bank account. It never leaves the city or the player...however, Pujols deserves his place as the game's highest paid player. Consistently outstanding numbers despite playing in a relatively fair ballpark, solid (and underrated) base running skills, Gold Glove caliber defense, and oh yeah, has never been linked to those drugs that enhance one's performance. What if the Cardinals see that they aren't going to make it this year and you have this valuable trade chip at your expense? After all, you are in a business. You need to make a sound decision for your future, with the impending notion that Pujols can leave you at season's end (see Anthony, Carmelo and Williams, Deron). So why not trade him for max value during his physical peak if the 2011 season is going to fall short? You'd be foolish not to.
Question 4: If the Cardinals have to do the unthinkable and trade Pujols, where??
This is harder than you'd guess. Chances are the Cards would want to trade Pujols to a team that a) has a great farm system with future prospects, b) in the playoff race and c) needs a middle of the order, power hitting first basemen. It is option c that is the trickiest part. Let's quickly run through 2010's playoff teams and their first basemen going into 2011:
Giants (Aubrey Huff)
Rangers (Mitch Moreland)
Yankees (Mark Texieria)
Phillies (Ryan Howard)
Rays (Dan Johnson/Ben Zobrist)
Reds (Joey Votto)
Twins (Justin Morneau)
Braves (Freddie Freeman/Martin Prado)
In the case of the Yanks, Phils, Reds, and Twins, they are staying put. However, if John Mozeliak called Brian Cashman and said that Pujols was available, he'd be an idiot if he hung up...to be fair, every team would at least have to listen, right? This is Albert Pujols !!! Anyway, the Braves, Rays, Giants, and Rangers have more to listen to and in the case of all of those teams, they have the farm system to pull off a blockbuster for a Pujols rental in 2011. However, the Giants signed Huff in the offseason and would be reluctant if the Cards started asking for someone of the Jonathon Sanchez/Andres Torres type. The Rays flat out would not do it unless they won the Florida lottery (even then, they might pocket that to refurbish the warehouse out in center field). This leaves the Rangers and the Braves. I mean Atlanta...Freddie Freeman? Come on...son, that is a no doubter. But would they do it? The Braves would only do that if they were one piece away from toppling the Phillies in the NL and, yes they have the pitching, but not the late inning relief or consistent 1-8. Now the Rangers...ahhh, a suitor. I know the Rangers like Mitch Moreland but again, this is Albert Pujols !!! Plus, the Rangers got denied by Cliff Lee in the 2010 Hot Stove but for the most part, they are the same team that lead the AL West before acquiring Lee, so it makes sense that they will be in contention this summer as well. Wouldn't a Pujols/Josh Hamilton 3-4 basically make a pitcher wanna take up substituting 10 year olds rather than trying to retire those two hitters? I'm glad we agree. Plus, Pujols in Arlington with that ballpark and that lineup...mercy. He'd be a 45-50 HR threat every season, plus the Rangers were willing to shell out big money for Lee, so why not Pujols? It does make sense.
But what if the Rangers are not in the hunt? What are other solutions? Of course, the big market teams are more logical answers but Boston is OK at first base with Adrian Gonzalez, the White Sox (and Kenny Williams) have made it clear they want no part of a $30 million a year player, the Cubs are a mess right now, the Dodgers are in the middle of a divorce, the Angels will more than likely try to sign Pujols than trade their future, and the Mets are not exactly financially sound right now and that was being generous. This leaves us with a middle market team in pursuit of a gamble, trying to get to the postseason. They need to have a solid foundation of young players available in the farm to not compromise their major league roster, they must also have some semblance of being one player away from being a legit contender for the 2011 season, even if its just a rent-Al. It also must have an appealing fan base that will come out and see a winner.
That leaves us with San Diego, Colorado and Toronto.
All beautiful cities where baseball is the secondary sport, solid farm teams, over .500 last year, and all are in need of a slugger to help bolster their clubs and possibly make a postseason run. For San Diego, it is more complex. They have the arms to win with but they play in an offensively challenged ballpark. If Pujols is to waive his no-trade, he'd rather play in a more forgiving stadium such as Coors Field or Rodgers Centre or possibly have a root canal with no Novocain. Toronto doesn't jive well either because you can win 90 games and finish third in the AL East, but Pujols playing in Canada with a very sneaky dangerous offense would be fun to watch. Colorado fits all the criteria with one exception: Todd Helton. Would the Rockies organization part ways with its greatest player for maybe, when it is all said and done one of the greatest players of all time? A difficult moral dilemma to say the very least in Denver, that is, unless you are a complete fool. This is Albert Pujols !!! Run through the middle of that lineup again in Coors Field: Gonzalez, Tulowitzki, and Ian Stewart with Albert Pujols tossed in the middle of it with Ubaldo Jimenez entering the prime of his pitching career in a winnable NL West. I say we have a winner.
Except...let's look to the North Side one more time. The Cubs have had the personnel for many years to win but have failed. It is not a stretch to think that they can't finally put it together and then add their arch rival's best player to end a 103 year hex/curse/plague. Simply put, a story of the 2011 season was going to be Albert Pujols no matter what. Adam Wainwright's elbow just made it the story.
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